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1. Recent reports on insect decline have highlighted the need for long-term data on insect communities towards identifying their trends and drivers.
2. With the launch of many new insect monitoring schemes to investigate insect communities over large spatial and temporal scales, Malaise traps have become one of the most important tools due to the broad spectrum of species collected and reduced capture bias through passive sampling of insects day and night. However, Malaise traps can vary in size, shape, and colour, and it is unknown how these differences affect biomass, species richness, and composition of trap catch, making it difficult to compare results between studies.
3. We compared five Malaise trap types (three variations of the Townes and two variations of the Bartak Malaise trap) to determine their effects on biomass and species richness as identified by metabarcoding.
4. Insect biomass varied by 20%–55%, not strictly following trap size but varying with trap type. Total species richness was 20%–38% higher in the three Townes trap models compared to the Bartak traps. Bartak traps captured lower richness of highly mobile taxa but increased richness of ground-dwelling taxa. The white roofed Townes trap captured a higher richness of pollinators.
5. We find that biomass, total richness, and taxa group specific richness are all sensitive to Malaise trap type. Trap type should be carefully considered and aligned to match monitoring and research questions. Additionally, our estimates of trap type effects can be used to adjust results to facilitate comparisons across studies.
Species distribution models (SDMs) are key tools in biodiversity and conservation, but assessing their reliability in unsampled locations is difficult, especially where there are sampling biases. We present a spatially-explicit sensitivity analysis for SDMs – SDM profiling – which assesses the leverage that unsampled locations have on the overall model by exploring the interaction between the effect on the variable response curves and the prevalence of the affected environmental conditions. The method adds a ‘pseudo-presence’ and ‘pseudo-absence’ to unsampled locations, re-running the SDM for each, and measuring the difference between the probability surfaces of the original and new SDMs. When the standardised difference values are plotted against each other (a ‘profile plot’), each point's location can be summarized by four leverage measures, calculated as the distances to each corner. We explore several applications: visualization of model certainty; identification of optimal new sampling locations and redundant existing locations; and flagging potentially erroneous occurrence records.
The number of additive manufacturing methods and materials is growing rapidly, leaving gaps in the knowledge of specific material properties. A relatively recent addition is the metal-filled filament to be printed similarly to the fused filament fabrication (FFF) technology used for plastic materials, but with additional debinding and sintering steps. While tensile, bending, and shear properties of metals manufactured this way have been studied thoroughly, their fatigue properties remain unexplored. Thus, the paper aims to determine the tensile, fatigue, and impact strengths of Markforged 17-4 PH and BASF Ultrafuse 316L stainless steel to answer whether the metal FFF can be used for structural parts safely with the current state of technology. They are compared to two 316L variants manufactured via selective laser melting (SLM) and literature results. For extrusion-based additive manufacturing methods, a significant decrease in tensile and fatigue strength is observed compared to specimens manufactured via SLM. Defects created during the extrusion and by the pathing scheme, causing a rough surface and internal voids to act as local stress risers, handle the strength decrease. The findings cast doubt on whether the metal FFF technique can be safely used for structural components; therefore, further developments are needed to reduce internal material defects.
Background: In recent years, the volume of medical knowledge and health data has increased rapidly. For example, the increased availability of electronic health records (EHRs) provides accurate, up-to-date, and complete information about patients at the point of care and enables medical staff to have quick access to patient records for more coordinated and efficient care. With this increase in knowledge, the complexity of accurate, evidence-based medicine tends to grow all the time. Health care workers must deal with an increasing amount of data and documentation. Meanwhile, relevant patient data are frequently overshadowed by a layer of less relevant data, causing medical staff to often miss important values or abnormal trends and their importance to the progression of the patient’s case.
Objective: The goal of this work is to analyze the current laboratory results for patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) and classify which of these lab values could be abnormal the next time the test is done. Detecting near-future abnormalities can be useful to support clinicians in their decision-making process in the ICU by drawing their attention to the important values and focus on future lab testing, saving them both time and money. Additionally, it will give doctors more time to spend with patients, rather than skimming through a long list of lab values.
Methods: We used Structured Query Language to extract 25 lab values for mechanically ventilated patients in the ICU from the MIMIC-III and eICU data sets. Additionally, we applied time-windowed sampling and holding, and a support vector machine to fill in the missing values in the sparse time series, as well as the Tukey range to detect and delete anomalies. Then, we used the data to train 4 deep learning models for time series classification, as well as a gradient boosting–based algorithm and compared their performance on both data sets.
Results: The models tested in this work (deep neural networks and gradient boosting), combined with the preprocessing pipeline, achieved an accuracy of at least 80% on the multilabel classification task. Moreover, the model based on the multiple convolutional neural network outperformed the other algorithms on both data sets, with the accuracy exceeding 89%.
Conclusions: In this work, we show that using machine learning and deep neural networks to predict near-future abnormalities in lab values can achieve satisfactory results. Our system was trained, validated, and tested on 2 well-known data sets to ensure that our system bridged the reality gap as much as possible. Finally, the model can be used in combination with our preprocessing pipeline on real-life EHRs to improve patients’ diagnosis and treatment.
Numerous research methods have been developed to detect anomalies in the areas of security and risk analysis. In healthcare, there are numerous use cases where anomaly detection is relevant. For example, early detection of sepsis is one such use case. Early treatment of sepsis is cost effective and reduces the number of hospital days of patients in the ICU. There is no single procedure that is sufficient for sepsis diagnosis, and combinations of approaches are needed. Detecting anomalies in patient time series data could help speed the development of some decisions. However, our algorithm must be viewed as complementary to other approaches based on laboratory values and physician judgments. The focus of this work is to develop a hybrid method for detecting anomalies that occur, for example, in multidimensional medical signals, sensor signals, or other time series in business and nature. The novelty of our approach lies in the extension and combination of existing approaches: Statistics, Self Organizing Maps and Linear Discriminant Analysis in a unique and unprecedented way with the goal of identifying different types of anomalies in real-time measurement data and defining the point where the anomaly occurs. The proposed algorithm not only has the full potential to detect anomalies, but also to find real points where an anomaly starts.
A new comprehensive evaluation system presented here allows to compare and to quantify education for a sustainable development (ESD) in degree programs. The evaluation is based on a criteria system working with three hierarchic levels. The highest level considers a list of 35 indicator terms. Primarily, the two most popular undergraduate (bachelor’s) degree programs in Germany (mechanical engineering, ME, and business administration, BA) have been reviewed for ESD contents based on the new evaluation scheme. Additionally we reviewed and quantified ESD subjects and their temporal changes in the entire bandwidth of degree programs of a university (Umwelt-Campus Birkenfeld, University of Applied Sciences Trier), back to 1999. Moreover, a spot check on international ME and BA bachelor’s degree programs was performed. Through our reviews, we found a high number of elective classes dedicated to ESD particularly in BA bachelor programs. However, the percentage of compulsory classes related to ESD is relatively low with 5-6 % in both ME and BA programs, respectively. The spot check on degree programs outside Germany revealed similar results. Analysing the time trend at Umwelt-Campus Birkenfeld, a considerable share of ESD that was part of the original diploma degrees was moved to what are now master’s degrees.
Concerns over climate change, air pollution, and oil supply have stimulated the market for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The environmental impacts of BEVs are typically evaluated through a standardized life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Here, the LCA literature was surveyed with the objective to sketch the major trends and challenges in the impact assessment of BEVs. It was found that BEVs tend to be more energy efficient and less polluting than conventional cars. BEVs decrease exposure to air pollution as their impacts largely result from vehicle production and electricity generation outside of urban areas. The carbon footprint of BEVs, being highly sensitive to the carbon intensity of the electricity mix, may decrease in the nearby future through a shift to renewable energies and technology improvements in general. A minority of LCAs covers impact categories other than carbon footprint, revealing a mixed picture. Up to date little attention is paid so far in LCA to the efficiency advantage of BEVs in urban traffic, the gap between on-road and certified energy consumption, the local exposure to air pollutants and noise and the aging of emissions control technologies in conventional cars. Improvements of BEV components, directed charging, second-life reuse of vehicle batteries, as well as vehicle-to-home and vehicle-to-grid applications will significantly reduce the environmental impacts of BEVs in the future.
Global change effects on biodiversity and human wellbeing call for improved long-term environmental data as a basis for science, policy and decision making, including increased interoperability, multifunctionality, and harmonization. Based on the example of two global initiatives, the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network and the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we propose merging the frameworks behind these initiatives, namely ecosystem integrity and essential biodiversity variables, to serve as an improved guideline for future site-based long-term research and monitoring in terrestrial, freshwater and coastal ecosystems. We derive a list of specific recommendations of what and how to measure at a monitoring site and call for an integration of sites into co-located site networks across individual monitoring initiatives, and centered on ecosystems. This facilitates the generation of linked comprehensive ecosystem monitoring data, supports synergies in the use of costly infrastructures, fosters cross-initiative research and provides a template for collaboration beyond the ILTER and GEO BON communities.
Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15–91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising ~6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions. Our results reveal that local trends of abundance, richness and diversity differ among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, demonstrating that biodiversity changes at local scale are often complex and cannot be easily generalized. However, we find increases in richness and abundance with increasing temperature and naturalness as well as a clear spatial pattern in changes in community composition (i.e. temporal taxonomic turnover) in most biogeoregions of Northern and Eastern Europe.
Intraspecific diet specialization, usually driven by resource availability, competition and predation, is common in natural populations. However, the role of parasites on diet specialization of their hosts has rarely been studied. Eye flukes can impair vision ability of their hosts and have been associated with alterations of fish feeding behavior. Here it was assessed whether European perch (Perca fluviatilis) alter their diet composition as a consequence of infection with eye flukes. Young-of-the-year (YOY) perch from temperate Lake Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany) were sampled in two years, eye flukes counted and fish diet was evaluated using both stomach content and stable isotope analyses. Perch diet was dominated by zooplankton and benthic macroinvertebrates. Both methods indicated that with increasing eye fluke infection intensity fish had a more selective diet, feeding mainly on the benthic macroinvertebrate Dikerogammarus villosus, while less intensively infected fish appeared to be generalist feeders showing no preference for any particular prey type. Our results show that infection with eye flukes can indirectly affect interaction of the host with lower trophic levels by altering the diet composition and highlight the underestimated role of parasites in food web studies.
The aim of this work was to develop and evaluate the reinforcement learning algorithm VentAI, which is able to suggest a dynamically optimized mechanical ventilation regime for critically-ill patients. We built, validated and tested its performance on 11,943 events of volume-controlled mechanical ventilation derived from 61,532 distinct ICU admissions and tested it on an independent, secondary dataset (200,859 ICU stays; 25,086 mechanical ventilation events). A patient “data fingerprint” of 44 features was extracted as multidimensional time series in 4-hour time steps. We used a Markov decision process, including a reward system and a Q-learning approach, to find the optimized settings for positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP), fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) and ideal body weight-adjusted tidal volume (Vt). The observed outcome was in-hospital or 90-day mortality. VentAI reached a significantly increased estimated performance return of 83.3 (primary dataset) and 84.1 (secondary dataset) compared to physicians’ standard clinical care (51.1). The number of recommended action changes per mechanically ventilated patient constantly exceeded those of the clinicians. VentAI chose 202.9% more frequently ventilation regimes with lower Vt (5–7.5 mL/kg), but 50.8% less for regimes with higher Vt (7.5–10 mL/kg). VentAI recommended 29.3% more frequently PEEP levels of 5–7 cm H2O and 53.6% more frequently PEEP levels of 7–9 cmH2O. VentAI avoided high (>55%) FiO2 values (59.8% decrease), while preferring the range of 50–55% (140.3% increase). In conclusion, VentAI provides reproducible high performance by dynamically choosing an optimized, individualized ventilation strategy and thus might be of benefit for critically ill patients.
1. Among the many concerns for biodiversity in the Anthropocene, recent reports of flying insect loss are particularly alarming, given their importance as pollinators, pest control agents, and as a food source. Few insect monitoring programmes cover the large spatial scales required to provide more generalizable estimates of insect responses to global change drivers.
2. We ask how climate and surrounding habitat affect flying insect biomass using data from the first year of a new monitoring network at 84 locations across Germany comprising a spatial gradient of land cover types from protected to urban and crop areas.
3. Flying insect biomass increased linearly with temperature across Germany. However, the effect of temperature on flying insect biomass flipped to negative in the hot months of June and July when local temperatures most exceeded long-term averages.
4. Land cover explained little variation in insect biomass, but biomass was lowest in forests. Grasslands, pastures, and orchards harboured the highest insect biomass. The date of peak biomass was primarily driven by surrounding land cover, with grasslands especially having earlier insect biomass phenologies.
5. Standardised, large-scale monitoring provides key insights into the underlying processes of insect decline and is pivotal for the development of climate-adapted strategies to promote insect diversity. In a temperate climate region, we find that the positive effects of temperature on flying insect biomass diminish in a German summer at locations where temperatures most exceeded long-term averages. Our results highlight the importance of local adaptation in climate change-driven impacts on insect communities.
This paper presents a feasibility study for the production of recycled glycol modified polyethylene terephthalate (PETG) material for additive manufacturing. Past studies showed a variety of results for the recycling of 3D-printing material, therefore the precise effect on the material properties is not completely clear. For this work, PETG waste of the same grade was recycled once and further processed into 3D printing filament. The study compares three blend ratios between purchased plastic pellets and recycled pellets to determine the degradation effect of one recycling cycle and possible blend ratios to counter these effects. Furthermore, the results include a commercially available filament. The comparison uses the filament diameter, the dimensional accuracy of the printed test specimen and mechanical properties as quality criteria. The study shows that the recycled material has a minor decrease concerning the tensile strength and Young’s modulus.
Background: Tobacco smoking prevalence continues to be high, particularly among adolescents and young adults with lower educational levels, and is therefore a serious public health problem. Tobacco smoking and problem drinking often co-occur and relapses after successful smoking cessation are often associated with alcohol use. This study aims at testing the efficacy of an integrated smoking cessation and alcohol intervention by comparing it to a smoking cessation only intervention for young people, delivered via the Internet and mobile phone.
Methods/Design: A two-arm cluster-randomised controlled trial with one follow-up assessment after 6 months will be conducted. Participants in the integrated intervention group will: (1) receive individually tailored web-based feedback on their drinking behaviour based on age and gender norms, (2) receive individually tailored mobile phone text messages to promote drinking within low-risk limits over a 3-month period, (3) receive individually tailored mobile phone text messages to support smoking cessation for 3 months, and (4) be offered the option of registering for a more intensive program that provides strategies for smoking cessation centred around a self-defined quit date. Participants in the smoking cessation only intervention group will only receive components (3) and (4). Study participants will be 1350 students who smoke tobacco daily/occasionally, from vocational schools in Switzerland. Main outcome criteria are 7-day point prevalence smoking abstinence and cigarette consumption assessed at the 6-month follow up.
Discussion: This is the first study testing a fully automated intervention for smoking cessation that simultaneously addresses alcohol use and interrelations between tobacco and alcohol use. The integrated intervention can be easily implemented in various settings and could be used with large groups of young people in a cost-effective way.
Background: Problem drinking, particularly risky single-occasion drinking is widespread among adolescents and young adults in most Western countries. Mobile phone text messaging allows a proactive and cost-effective delivery of short messages at any time and place and allows the delivery of individualised information at times when young people typically drink alcohol. The main objective of the planned study is to test the efficacy of a combined web- and text messaging-based intervention to reduce problem drinking in young people with heterogeneous educational level.
Methods/Design: A two-arm cluster-randomised controlled trial with one follow-up assessment after 6 months will be conducted to test the efficacy of the intervention in comparison to assessment only. The fully-automated intervention program will provide an online feedback based on the social norms approach as well as individually tailored mobile phone text messages to stimulate (1) positive outcome expectations to drink within low-risk limits, (2) self-efficacy to resist alcohol and (3) planning processes to translate intentions to resist alcohol into action. Program participants will receive up to two weekly text messages over a time period of 3 months. Study participants will be 934 students from approximately 93 upper secondary and vocational schools in Switzerland. Main outcome criterion will be risky single-occasion drinking in the past 30 days preceding the follow-up assessment.
Discussion: This is the first study testing the efficacy of a combined web- and text messaging-based intervention to reduce problem drinking in young people. Given that this intervention approach proves to be effective, it could be easily implemented in various settings, and it could reach large numbers of young people in a cost-effective way.
Background: High numbers of consumable medical materials (eg, sterile needles and swabs) are used during the daily routine of intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. Although medical consumables largely contribute to total ICU hospital expenditure, many hospitals do not track the individual use of materials. Current tracking solutions meeting the specific requirements of the medical environment, like barcodes or radio frequency identification, require specialized material preparation and high infrastructure investment. This impedes the accurate prediction of consumption, leads to high storage maintenance costs caused by large inventories, and hinders scientific work due to inaccurate documentation. Thus, new cost-effective and contactless methods for object detection are urgently needed.
Objective: The goal of this work was to develop and evaluate a contactless visual recognition system for tracking medical consumable materials in ICUs using a deep learning approach on a distributed client-server architecture.
Methods: We developed Consumabot, a novel client-server optical recognition system for medical consumables, based on the convolutional neural network model MobileNet implemented in Tensorflow. The software was designed to run on single-board computer platforms as a detection unit. The system was trained to recognize 20 different materials in the ICU, while 100 sample images of each consumable material were provided. We assessed the top-1 recognition rates in the context of different real-world ICU settings: materials presented to the system without visual obstruction, 50% covered materials, and scenarios of multiple items. We further performed an analysis of variance with repeated measures to quantify the effect of adverse real-world circumstances.
Results: Consumabot reached a >99% reliability of recognition after about 60 steps of training and 150 steps of validation. A desirable low cross entropy of <0.03 was reached for the training set after about 100 iteration steps and after 170 steps for the validation set. The system showed a high top-1 mean recognition accuracy in a real-world scenario of 0.85 (SD 0.11) for objects presented to the system without visual obstruction. Recognition accuracy was lower, but still acceptable, in scenarios where the objects were 50% covered (P<.001; mean recognition accuracy 0.71; SD 0.13) or multiple objects of the target group were present (P=.01; mean recognition accuracy 0.78; SD 0.11), compared to a nonobstructed view. The approach met the criteria of absence of explicit labeling (eg, barcodes, radio frequency labeling) while maintaining a high standard for quality and hygiene with minimal consumption of resources (eg, cost, time, training, and computational power).
Conclusions: Using a convolutional neural network architecture, Consumabot consistently achieved good results in the classification of consumables and thus is a feasible way to recognize and register medical consumables directly to a hospital’s electronic health record. The system shows limitations when the materials are partially covered, therefore identifying characteristics of the consumables are not presented to the system. Further development of the assessment in different medical circumstances is needed.
Fuzzy system based on two-step cascade genetic optimization strategy for tobacco tar prediction
(2019)
There are many challenges in accurately measuring cigarette tar constituents. These include the need for standardized smoke generation methods related to unstable mixtures. In this research were developed algorithms using fusion of artificial intelligence methods to predict tar concentration. Outputs of development are three fuzzy structures optimized with genetic algorithms resulting in genetic algorithm (GA)-FUZZY, GA-adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), GA-GA-FUZZY algorithms. Proposed algorithms are used for the tar prediction in the cigarette production process. The results of prediction are compared with gas chromatograph (high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)) readings.
Since operational managers often monitor large numbers of wind turbines (WTs), they depend on a toolset to provide them with highly condensed information to identify and prioritize low performing WTs or schedule preventive maintenance measures. Power curves are a frequently used tool to assess the performance of WTs. The power curve health value (HV) used in this work is supposed to detect power curve anomalies since small deviations in the power curve are not easy to identify. It evaluates deviations in the linear region of power curves by performing a principal component analysis. To calculate the HV, the standard deviation in direction of the second principal component of a reference data set is compared to the standard deviation of a combined data set consisting of the reference data and data of the evaluated period. This article examines the applicability of this HV for different purposes as well as its sensitivities and provides a modified HV approach to make it more robust and suitable for heterogeneous data sets. The modified HV was tested based on ENGIE's open data wind farm and data of on- and offshore WTs from the WInD-Pool. It proved to detect anomalies in the linear region of the power curve in a reliable and sensitive manner and was also eligible to detect long term power curve degradation. Also, about 7 % of all corrective maintenance measures were preceded by high HVs with a median alarm horizon of three days. Overall, the HV proved to be a promising tool for various applications.
This study introduced an automated long-term fermentation process for fungals grown in pellet form. The goal was to reduce the overgrowth of bioreactor internals and sensors while better rheological properties in the fermentation broth, such as oxygen transfer and mixing time, can be achieved. Because this could not be accomplished with continuous culture and fed-batch fermentation, repeated-batch fermentation was implemented with the help of additional bioreactor internals (“sporulation supports”). This should capture some biomass during fermentation. After harvesting the suspended biomass, intermediate cleaning was performed using a cleaning device. The biomass retained on the sporulation support went through the sporulation phase. The spores were subsequently used as inocula for the next batch. The reason for this approach was that the retained pellets could otherwise cause problems (e.g., overgrowth on sensors) in subsequent batches because the fungus would then show undesirable hyphal growth. Various sporulation supports were tested for sufficient biomass fixation to start the next batch. A reproducible spore concentration within the range of the requirements could be achieved by adjusting the sporulation support (design and construction material), and an intermediate cleaning adapted to this.
This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ± 1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NOX and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure.