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Passenger cars in Europe have become both heavier and more powerful over the past decades. This trend has increased vehicle utility but it might have also offset technical improvements in powertrain efficiency. Here, we analyze efficiency trade-offs and CO2 emissions for three popular compact cars in Germany. We find that mass, power, and front area of model variants has increased by 66%, 147%, and 22%, respectively between 1980 and 2018. In the same period, fuel consumption decreased 14% for gasoline models but it increased 9% for diesel models. However, if vehicle mass, power, and front area had remained at 1980 levels, technical efficiency improvements would have decreased the fuel consumption of gasoline and diesel models by 23% and 24%, respectively. The related efficiency trade-offs amount to 24 g CO2/km or 13% of the current fuel consumption for gasoline models and 40 g CO2/km or 25% of the current fuel consumption for diesel models. These findings suggest that about half of the technical efficiency improvements in gasoline models and all of the technical efficiency improvements in diesel models are offset through other vehicle attributes. By accounting for the observed efficiency trade-offs, climate policy could become more effective.
This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ± 1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NOX and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure.
Purpose: The well-to-wheel (WTW) methodology is widely used for policy support in road transport. It can be seen as a simplified life cycle assessment (LCA) that focuses on the energy consumption and CO2 emissions only for the fuel being consumed, ignoring other stages of a vehicle’s life cycle. WTW results are therefore different from LCA results. In order to close this gap, the authors propose a hybrid WTW+LCA methodology useful to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) profiles of road vehicles.
Methods: The proposed method (hybrid WTW+LCA) keeps the main hypotheses of the WTW methodology, but integrates them with LCA data restricted to the global warming potential (GWP) occurring during the manufacturing of the battery pack. WTW data are used for the GHG intensity of the EU electric mix, after a consistency check with the main life cycle impact (LCI) sources available in literature.
Results and discussion: A numerical example is provided, comparing GHG emissions due to the use of a battery electric vehicle (BEV) with emissions from an internal combustion engine vehicle. This comparison is done both according to the WTW approach (namely the JEC WTW version 4) and the proposed hybrid WTW+LCA method. The GHG savings due to the use of BEVs calculated with the WTW-4 range between 44 and 56 %, while according to the hybrid method the savings are lower (31–46 %). This difference is due to the GWP which arises as a result of the manufacturing of the battery pack for the electric vehicles.
Conclusions: The WTW methodology used in policy support to quantify energy content and GHG emissions of fuels and powertrains can produce results closer to the LCA methodology by adopting a hybrid WTW+LCA approach. While evaluating GHG savings due to the use of BEVs, it is important that this method considers the GWP due to the manufacturing of the battery pack.
Background: On the way to a more sustainable society, transport needs to be urgently optimized regarding energy consumption and pollution control. While in earlier decades, Europe followed automobile technology leaps initiated in the USA, it has decoupled itself for 20 years by focusing research capacity towards the diesel powertrain. The resulting technology shift has led to some 45 million extra diesel cars in Europe. Its outcome in terms of health and environmental effects will be investigated below.
Results: Expected greenhouse gas savings initiated by the shift to diesel cars have been overestimated. Only about one tenth of overall energy efficiency improvements of passenger cars can be attributed to it. These minor savings are on the other hand overcompensated by a significant increase of supply chain CO2 emissions and extensive black carbon emissions of diesel cars without particulate filter. We conclude that the European diesel car boom did not cool down the atmosphere. Moreover, toxic NO x emissions of diesel cars have been underestimated up to 20-fold in officially announced data. The voluntary agreement signed in 1998 between the European Automobile industry and the European Commission envisaging to reduce CO2 emissions has been identified as elementary for the ensuing European diesel car boom. Four factors have been quantified in order to explain very different dieselization rates across Europe: impact of national car/supplier industry, ecological modernization, fuel tourism and corporatist political governance. By comparing the European diesel strategy to the Japanese petrol-hybrid avenue, it becomes clear that a different road would have both more effectively reduced CO2 emissions and pollutants.
Conclusion: Europe's car fleets have been persistently transformed from being petrol-driven to diesel-driven over the last 20 years. This paper investigates on how this came to be and why Europe took a distinct route as compared to other parts of the world. It also attempts to evaluate the outcome of stated goals of this transformation which was primarily a robust reduction in GHG emissions. We conclude that global warming has been negatively affected, and air pollution has become alarming in many European locations. More progressive development scenarios could have prevented these outcomes.
Concerns over climate change, air pollution, and oil supply have stimulated the market for battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The environmental impacts of BEVs are typically evaluated through a standardized life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Here, the LCA literature was surveyed with the objective to sketch the major trends and challenges in the impact assessment of BEVs. It was found that BEVs tend to be more energy efficient and less polluting than conventional cars. BEVs decrease exposure to air pollution as their impacts largely result from vehicle production and electricity generation outside of urban areas. The carbon footprint of BEVs, being highly sensitive to the carbon intensity of the electricity mix, may decrease in the nearby future through a shift to renewable energies and technology improvements in general. A minority of LCAs covers impact categories other than carbon footprint, revealing a mixed picture. Up to date little attention is paid so far in LCA to the efficiency advantage of BEVs in urban traffic, the gap between on-road and certified energy consumption, the local exposure to air pollutants and noise and the aging of emissions control technologies in conventional cars. Improvements of BEV components, directed charging, second-life reuse of vehicle batteries, as well as vehicle-to-home and vehicle-to-grid applications will significantly reduce the environmental impacts of BEVs in the future.
A new comprehensive evaluation system presented here allows to compare and to quantify education for a sustainable development (ESD) in degree programs. The evaluation is based on a criteria system working with three hierarchic levels. The highest level considers a list of 35 indicator terms. Primarily, the two most popular undergraduate (bachelor’s) degree programs in Germany (mechanical engineering, ME, and business administration, BA) have been reviewed for ESD contents based on the new evaluation scheme. Additionally we reviewed and quantified ESD subjects and their temporal changes in the entire bandwidth of degree programs of a university (Umwelt-Campus Birkenfeld, University of Applied Sciences Trier), back to 1999. Moreover, a spot check on international ME and BA bachelor’s degree programs was performed. Through our reviews, we found a high number of elective classes dedicated to ESD particularly in BA bachelor programs. However, the percentage of compulsory classes related to ESD is relatively low with 5-6 % in both ME and BA programs, respectively. The spot check on degree programs outside Germany revealed similar results. Analysing the time trend at Umwelt-Campus Birkenfeld, a considerable share of ESD that was part of the original diploma degrees was moved to what are now master’s degrees.