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This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ± 1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NOX and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure.
Fuzzy system based on two-step cascade genetic optimization strategy for tobacco tar prediction
(2019)
There are many challenges in accurately measuring cigarette tar constituents. These include the need for standardized smoke generation methods related to unstable mixtures. In this research were developed algorithms using fusion of artificial intelligence methods to predict tar concentration. Outputs of development are three fuzzy structures optimized with genetic algorithms resulting in genetic algorithm (GA)-FUZZY, GA-adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), GA-GA-FUZZY algorithms. Proposed algorithms are used for the tar prediction in the cigarette production process. The results of prediction are compared with gas chromatograph (high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)) readings.
We present the concrete realization of a virtual laboratory equipped with a pedagogical agent. Its functionality and media didactics takes into account the results of an usability test on a prototype system, and the students' demand on such an automated assistance as obtained from a preliminary survey. The pedagogical agent mediates between the content and the learner by activating him or her. To provide information about the learner's skills, we propose a pragmatic and simplified competence model that is based on fundamental representations in physics (experiment, figure, text and equation). Moreover, an automated feedback relates the student's self-assessment with the submitted answer to the correctness of the respective task. In consequence, the pedagogical agent enables mental reflection for a crucial review of the own learning process. Interestingly, learning pathways can be envisioned, thus, giving valuable insight into individual strengths and weaknesses.
Passenger cars in Europe have become both heavier and more powerful over the past decades. This trend has increased vehicle utility but it might have also offset technical improvements in powertrain efficiency. Here, we analyze efficiency trade-offs and CO2 emissions for three popular compact cars in Germany. We find that mass, power, and front area of model variants has increased by 66%, 147%, and 22%, respectively between 1980 and 2018. In the same period, fuel consumption decreased 14% for gasoline models but it increased 9% for diesel models. However, if vehicle mass, power, and front area had remained at 1980 levels, technical efficiency improvements would have decreased the fuel consumption of gasoline and diesel models by 23% and 24%, respectively. The related efficiency trade-offs amount to 24 g CO2/km or 13% of the current fuel consumption for gasoline models and 40 g CO2/km or 25% of the current fuel consumption for diesel models. These findings suggest that about half of the technical efficiency improvements in gasoline models and all of the technical efficiency improvements in diesel models are offset through other vehicle attributes. By accounting for the observed efficiency trade-offs, climate policy could become more effective.
A new comprehensive evaluation system presented here allows to compare and to quantify education for a sustainable development (ESD) in degree programs. The evaluation is based on a criteria system working with three hierarchic levels. The highest level considers a list of 35 indicator terms. Primarily, the two most popular undergraduate (bachelor’s) degree programs in Germany (mechanical engineering, ME, and business administration, BA) have been reviewed for ESD contents based on the new evaluation scheme. Additionally we reviewed and quantified ESD subjects and their temporal changes in the entire bandwidth of degree programs of a university (Umwelt-Campus Birkenfeld, University of Applied Sciences Trier), back to 1999. Moreover, a spot check on international ME and BA bachelor’s degree programs was performed. Through our reviews, we found a high number of elective classes dedicated to ESD particularly in BA bachelor programs. However, the percentage of compulsory classes related to ESD is relatively low with 5-6 % in both ME and BA programs, respectively. The spot check on degree programs outside Germany revealed similar results. Analysing the time trend at Umwelt-Campus Birkenfeld, a considerable share of ESD that was part of the original diploma degrees was moved to what are now master’s degrees.