57 Biowissenschaften; Biologie
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Science on ecosystems and people to support the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework
(2023)
In December 2022, members of the Convention on Biological Diversity adopted the new Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) to guide international biodiversity conservation efforts until 2030 in order to be able to live ‘in harmony with nature’ by 2050. This framework addresses the implementation gap left after the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, which were the previous global instrument for mainstreaming biodiversity conservation between 2010 and 2020.
The aim of this editorial is to draw attention to the GBF targets that are most relevant to our readership, with two objectives: First, to suggest how Ecosystems and People may be a venue for emerging research insights in support of the GBF. Second, to highlight examples of recent research in Ecosystems and People that can contribute to enrich, or even challenge, the evidence and development of the GBF Targets.
Owing to a long history of anthropogenic pressures, freshwater ecosystems are among the most vulnerable to biodiversity loss1. Mitigation measures, including wastewater treatment and hydromorphological restoration, have aimed to improve environmental quality and foster the recovery of freshwater biodiversity2. Here, using 1,816 time series of freshwater invertebrate communities collected across 22 European countries between 1968 and 2020, we quantified temporal trends in taxonomic and functional diversity and their responses to environmental pressures and gradients. We observed overall increases in taxon richness (0.73% per year), functional richness (2.4% per year) and abundance (1.17% per year). However, these increases primarily occurred before the 2010s, and have since plateaued. Freshwater communities downstream of dams, urban areas and cropland were less likely to experience recovery. Communities at sites with faster rates of warming had fewer gains in taxon richness, functional richness and abundance. Although biodiversity gains in the 1990s and 2000s probably reflect the effectiveness of water-quality improvements and restoration projects, the decelerating trajectory in the 2010s suggests that the current measures offer diminishing returns. Given new and persistent pressures on freshwater ecosystems, including emerging pollutants, climate change and the spread of invasive species, we call for additional mitigation to revive the recovery of freshwater biodiversity.
Species distribution models (SDMs) are key tools in biodiversity and conservation, but assessing their reliability in unsampled locations is difficult, especially where there are sampling biases. We present a spatially-explicit sensitivity analysis for SDMs – SDM profiling – which assesses the leverage that unsampled locations have on the overall model by exploring the interaction between the effect on the variable response curves and the prevalence of the affected environmental conditions. The method adds a ‘pseudo-presence’ and ‘pseudo-absence’ to unsampled locations, re-running the SDM for each, and measuring the difference between the probability surfaces of the original and new SDMs. When the standardised difference values are plotted against each other (a ‘profile plot’), each point's location can be summarized by four leverage measures, calculated as the distances to each corner. We explore several applications: visualization of model certainty; identification of optimal new sampling locations and redundant existing locations; and flagging potentially erroneous occurrence records.