Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars - An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions

  • This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ± 1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NOX and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure.

Download full text files

Export metadata

Author:Martin Weiss, Andreas Zerfass, Eckard Helmers
Parent Title (English):Journal of Cleaner Production
Document Type:Article (specialist journals)
Date of OPUS upload:2022/09/06
Year of first Publication:2019
Publishing University:Hochschule Trier
Release Date:2022/09/06
Tag:break-even production; electric cars; emissions mitigation costs; learning rates; plug-in hybrid cars
GND Keyword:Elektrofahrzeug; Plug-in-Hybrid; Emissionsverringerung
Page Number:12
First Page:1478
Last Page:1489
Departments:FB Umweltplanung/-technik (UCB)
Dewey Decimal Classification:6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 62 Ingenieurwissenschaften
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International