A Two-Layer HiMPC Planning Framework for High-Renewable Grids: Zero-Exchange Test on Germany 2045
- High-renewables grids are planned in min but judged in milliseconds; credible studies must therefore resolve both horizons within a single model. Current adequacy tools bypass fast frequency dynamics, while detailed simulators lack multi-hour optimization, leaving investors without a unified basis for sizing storage, shifting demand, or upgrading transfers. We present a two-layer Hierarchical Model Predictive Control framework that links 15-min scheduling with 1-s corrective action and apply it to Germany’s four TSO zones under a stringent zero-exchange stress test derived from the NEP 2045 baseline. Batteries, vehicle-to-grid, pumped hydro and power-to-gas technologies are captured through aggregators; a decentralized optimizer pre-positions them, while a fast layer refines setpoints as forecasts drift; all are subject to inter-zonal transfer limits. Year-long simulations hold frequency within ±2 mHz for 99.9% of hours and below ±10 mHz during the worst multi-day renewable lull. Batteries absorb sub-second transients, electrolyzers smooth surpluses, and hydrogen turbines bridge week-long deficits — none of which violate transfer constraints. Because the algebraic core is modular, analysts can insert new asset classes or policy rules with minimal code change, enabling policy-relevant scenario studies from storage mandates to capacity-upgrade plans. The work elevates predictive control from plant-scale demonstrations to system-level planning practice. It unifies adequacy sizing and dynamic-performance evaluation in a single optimization loop, delivering an open, scalable blueprint for high-renewables assessments. The framework is readily portable to other interconnected grids, supporting analyses of storage obligations, hydrogen roll-outs and islanding strategies.
| Author: | Alexander BlinnORCiD, Joshua Bunner, Fabian KennelORCiD |
|---|---|
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:hbz:tr5-11046 |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215579 |
| Parent Title (English): | Energies |
| Publisher: | MDPI |
| Document Type: | Article (specialist journals) |
| Language: | English |
| Date of OPUS upload: | 2026/01/22 |
| Date of first Publication: | 2025/10/23 |
| Publishing University: | Hochschule Trier |
| Release Date: | 2026/01/22 |
| Tag: | energy system planning; model predictive control; optimization; scenario; sector coupling |
| GND Keyword: | Erneuerbare Energien; Intelligentes Stromnetz; Modellprädiktive Regelung; Sektorkopplung; Szenario; Stresstest |
| Volume: | 18 |
| Issue: | 21 |
| Article Number: | 5579 |
| First Page: | 1 |
| Last Page: | 41 |
| Departments: | Institute / IBT - Institut für Betriebs- und Technologiemanagement |
| Dewey Decimal Classification: | 6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 62 Ingenieurwissenschaften |
| Licence (German): | Creative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |


