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A Two-Layer HiMPC Planning Framework for High-Renewable Grids: Zero-Exchange Test on Germany 2045

  • High-renewables grids are planned in min but judged in milliseconds; credible studies must therefore resolve both horizons within a single model. Current adequacy tools bypass fast frequency dynamics, while detailed simulators lack multi-hour optimization, leaving investors without a unified basis for sizing storage, shifting demand, or upgrading transfers. We present a two-layer Hierarchical Model Predictive Control framework that links 15-min scheduling with 1-s corrective action and apply it to Germany’s four TSO zones under a stringent zero-exchange stress test derived from the NEP 2045 baseline. Batteries, vehicle-to-grid, pumped hydro and power-to-gas technologies are captured through aggregators; a decentralized optimizer pre-positions them, while a fast layer refines setpoints as forecasts drift; all are subject to inter-zonal transfer limits. Year-long simulations hold frequency within ±2 mHz for 99.9% of hours and below ±10 mHz during the worst multi-day renewable lull. Batteries absorb sub-second transients, electrolyzers smooth surpluses, and hydrogen turbines bridge week-long deficits — none of which violate transfer constraints. Because the algebraic core is modular, analysts can insert new asset classes or policy rules with minimal code change, enabling policy-relevant scenario studies from storage mandates to capacity-upgrade plans. The work elevates predictive control from plant-scale demonstrations to system-level planning practice. It unifies adequacy sizing and dynamic-performance evaluation in a single optimization loop, delivering an open, scalable blueprint for high-renewables assessments. The framework is readily portable to other interconnected grids, supporting analyses of storage obligations, hydrogen roll-outs and islanding strategies.

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Metadaten
Author:Alexander BlinnORCiD, Joshua Bunner, Fabian KennelORCiD
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:tr5-11046
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/en18215579
Parent Title (English):Energies
Publisher:MDPI
Document Type:Article (specialist journals)
Language:English
Date of OPUS upload:2026/01/22
Date of first Publication:2025/10/23
Publishing University:Hochschule Trier
Release Date:2026/01/22
Tag:energy system planning; model predictive control; optimization; scenario; sector coupling
GND Keyword:Erneuerbare Energien; Intelligentes Stromnetz; Modellprädiktive Regelung; Sektorkopplung; Szenario; Stresstest
Volume:18
Issue:21
Article Number:5579
First Page:1
Last Page:41
Departments:Institute / IBT - Institut für Betriebs- und Technologiemanagement
Dewey Decimal Classification:6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 62 Ingenieurwissenschaften
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International

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