TY  - JOUR
A1  - Weiss, Martin
A1  - Zerfass, Andreas
A1  - Helmers, Eckard
T1  - Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars - An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions
T2  - Journal of Cleaner Production
N2  - This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany. We find that between 2010 and 2016, the prices and price differentials relative to conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ± 1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, price beak-even with conventional cars may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids are produced. The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining annually by 14% and 26%. Also the costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions through the deployment of electrified cars tend to decline. However, at current levels, NOX and particle emissions are still mitigated at lower costs by state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains. Overall, the observation of robust technological learning suggests policy makers should focus their support on non-cost market barriers for the electrification of road transport, addressing specifically the availability of recharging infrastructure.
KW  - Elektrofahrzeug
KW  - Plug-in-Hybrid
KW  - Emissionsverringerung
KW  - electric cars
KW  - plug-in hybrid cars
KW  - learning rates
KW  - break-even production
KW  - emissions mitigation costs
Y1  - 2019
UR  - https://hst.opus.hbz-nrw.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/121
UR  - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:tr5-1213
VL  - 212
SP  - 1478
EP  - 1489
PB  - Elsevier
ER  -